In American politics today, the situation is somewhat terrifying, at least on the Republican side of things. Donald Trump is disingenuously but disgustingly appealing to the worst inclinations of some of those on the extreme far-right. The other three competitive options on the Republican side are also deeply flawed. Ben Carson is too inexperienced and too beholden to extreme elements of the Republican base. Ted Cruz is extreme, uncompromising and his Presidency would be incredibly polarizing and therefore destructive to the fabric of the country. Marco Rubio lacks the resume to be President, is too young and inexperienced and is also too scared of the far-right. As President, it seems as if he would seek to appease the far-right rather than be a unifying figure for the entire country.
So who does that leave? Rand Paul is too dogmatically libertarian, even if his views on civil liberties, criminal justice reform and other issues can be appealing. John Kasich and Chris Christie have some appeal but I favour the candidacy of Jeb Bush, who I think is the candidate with the potential to be the most unifying figure as President among all of the candidates running, in either party. He's also polling somewhat ahead of Christie and Kasich and is the non-extreme and grownup candidate with the greatest likelihood to prevent a Trump, Cruz, Carson or Rubio victory. Conservative, but not extreme. Open to immigration and not fearful of the consequences that might have on America's demographic makeup. Inclusive in tone and not someone who plays to people's fears (based on my read of his public statements over the past few months).
But Jeb Bush is so far behind, right? He's polling at between 3-5% in national polls and isn't doing much better in Iowa and New Hampshire. So how does he pull it off? In my opinion, it will start with him outperforming expectations in Iowa. This means a 2nd or 3rd place finish (right now he is polling a distant 5th). Outperforming expectations in Iowa could potentially set the stage for a victory in New Hampshire. A victory in New Hampshire would lead to the dropping out of Kasich and Christie (along with others, although Kasich and Christie are both betting heavily on NH and a Bush victory there would almost certainly lead to their exit from the race). The momentum from a New Hampshire win along with the narrowing of the field would slingshot Jeb right back into contention for the nomination.
So how does one outperform expectations in Iowa? Jeb Bush recorded a respectable 6% in a poll released today by Monmouth University. Considering how poorly his campaign has been going, that 6% is a decent base and depending on how the other candidates split the vote, 2nd or 3rd place could be achieved with as little as 13-15% of the vote, which shouldn't be out of the question. As David Brooks notes in his most recent column, voters will turn more sober by early February. Trump's shameless demagoguery and attention-seeking antics will likely start wearing a bit thin at some point. Carson will continue to lose support given his lack of fluency with the issues. Cruz is Cruz and his extremism won't play well in a general election. Voters will likely increasingly wake up to that reality as voting day approaches. Rubio's flaws should also become more apparent with time. The sobering of the electorate, a decent debate performance or two, along with a strong campaign effort could push Jeb easily north of 10%. I also have this gut feeling that Rand Paul's support in Iowa is understated in the polls. He's inheriting much of his father's ground game which made Ron Paul come shockingly close to winning the Iowa Caucuses in 2012. 26,000 votes when Santorum and Romney got 29,000+. I see no reason why Rand Paul can't tap into those 26,000 votes. He won't win but I think he can get around 10% of the vote when his dad got over 21% of the vote.
So for the purposes of handicapping the caucuses, I am assuming that Trump, Cruz, Carson, Rubio, Jeb and Rand all get at least 10% of the vote. I know right now it's not clear that Jeb and Rand will get 10% but I think both will be able to pull it off. The four poll leaders (Trump, Cruz, Carson and Rubio) could potentially drop below 10% in the final Iowa results although I don't see it happening just yet. If all 6 candidates get 10%, that speaks for 60% of caucus-goers. Another 15% of the vote will likely go to the other candidates (Huckabee, Santorum, Fiorina, Christie, Kasich and others). The other candidates may get more than 15% of the vote but 15% is probably a safe bet as a minimum considering there are two former winners of the caucuses in their ranks (unless we see some dropouts before Iowa).
So in total, under this scenario, 75% of the electorate has been spoken for. 25% is up for grabs. I would spot another 5% to Trump. I think his floor is maybe at around 15%. I also think Cruz's trajectory and the strength of his campaign will also have him finishing the race with at least 15%. That leaves 15% up for grabs. I would spot another 2-3% each to Rubio and Carson, assuming they each finish at 12 or 13%. This leaves us with another 10%.
Trump - 15%
Cruz - 15%
Rubio - 13%
Carson - 12%
Jeb - 10%
Rand - 10%
Others - 15%
Up for Grabs - 10%
If Jeb could take enough of the remaining 10% to slingshot himself over Rubio and into 3rd place behind Trump and Cruz (say 4% with 4% to Cruz and 2% to others) , he could position himself as the default non-extreme candidate for New Hampshire. It might seem like a bit of a stretch right now, but it's plausible. Bush 43 could be utilized in the homestretch in Iowa. That should definitely be good for a few thousand votes, if deployed smartly. With a couple good debate performances and the construction of a somewhat compelling narrative, a finish in even the high-teens is not out of the question. First place is likely out of reach but a strong second or third place finish would really shake things up for his campaign.
In the last Iowa caucuses, there were around 120,000 votes cast. Given the increase in interest in the current race, we might expect there to be 180,000 votes cast this time. 14% of 180,000 is about 25,000 votes. With a campaign and related organizations with maybe 200 million dollars at their disposal, turning out 25,000 Jeb voters seems achievable. That's $8,000 per voter if they spent their entire campaign in Iowa... and still $2,000 per voter if only one quarter of their funds were spent in Iowa! I'm guessing a lot of voters could be reached with $2,000 in outreach... and outperforming expectations in Iowa seems like the surest way to position the Jeb campaign for victory in New Hampshire. And with victory in New Hampshire, a strong result in South Carolina is plausible. By that point, Jeb would likely have the endorsement of Lindsay Graham and John McCain. And Mitt Romney may intervene too for Jeb if Jeb overshadows Rubio in Iowa and New Hampshire.
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